What can lead individuals to believe that a specific event is more likely to occur than it actually is?

The availability heuristic is a cognitive bias that causes individuals to evaluate the likelihood of an event based on how easily examples come to mind. When people hear about a particular event frequently, or if it is dramatic or emotionally charged, they are more likely to overestimate its occurrence. This happens because the mind relies on immediate examples that are readily available, which can create a distorted perception of reality.

For instance, after hearing about plane crashes in the news, a person might start to believe that flying is more dangerous than it actually is, simply because those vivid instances are easily recalled. This cognitive shortcut may lead to an exaggerated belief in the frequency of these events, even though statistically, they are rare.

This concept is fundamental in psychology as it reveals how human judgment often relies on readily available information rather than statistical evidence. In contrast, the other terms relate to different cognitive biases and decision-making processes that do not directly pertain to the misjudgment of an event’s likelihood based on recall or familiarity.