Which cognitive bias leads individuals to estimate the likelihood of an event based on immediate examples or occurrences?

The correct answer is availability bias because this cognitive bias occurs when people assess the frequency or likelihood of an event based on how easily they can recall instances of that event. For example, if someone frequently hears about airplane accidents in the news, they may overestimate the risks associated with flying, believing it to be more dangerous than it really is. Availability bias relies on readily accessible information and experiences, leading to skewed perceptions of reality.

This bias can significantly influence decision-making and judgments, as people often rely on vivid or memorable examples rather than considering probabilities or statistical evidence. It emphasizes how recent experiences or media portrayals can distort one's understanding of risk, availability of information, and overall assessment of scenarios.