Which of the following refers to the cognitive error of thinking that the likelihood of a random event increases due to recent occurrences?

The gambler's fallacy is the cognitive error that occurs when individuals believe that the probability of a random event is influenced by previous outcomes. This misconception leads to the assumption that if a certain event has occurred more frequently in the past, it is less likely to occur in the future, or vice versa, even though the events are independent. For instance, if a coin has landed on heads several times consecutively, one might erroneously believe that tails are now "due" to happen. This fallacy showcases a misunderstanding of statistical independence, where each event does not affect the next, which is a critical concept in understanding randomness and probability.

The other terms refer to different cognitive biases: hindsight bias involves the inclination to see events as having been predictable after they have already occurred; anchoring bias refers to the tendency to rely too heavily on the first piece of information encountered; and the equivalence effect relates to the tendency to perceive two options as different based on how they are framed. Each of these biases highlights different aspects of human cognition, but they do not pertain to the specific erroneous belief about randomness that defines the gambler's fallacy.